Brazil Presidential Election Odds This Week
Sunday's runoff is October 25. The October 22 winner board had Flávio Bolsonaro near 78%, while a win by under four points was a separate contract.
What are the Brazil presidential election odds for October 25?
On Polymarket’s featured board on October 22, Flávio Bolsonaro was 78.2% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was 22%, with about $191 million traded and an end date listed as October 26. RG.org’s October 22 table, priced at 12:07 a.m. ET, had Bolsonaro at 79%.
Why is a narrow Bolsonaro win priced below the winner market?
They are different contracts. RG.org’s October 21 margin board, with $3.5 million traded, had Bolsonaro by under 4 points at 38% while the winner market had him at 80%. By 12:07 a.m. ET on October 22 that narrow band was 43%.
When does the Brazil runoff vote get counted?
RG.org’s October 21 note says Brazil votes on Sunday, October 25, and the count starts at 4 p.m. ET. The Polymarket featured card listed an end date of October 26. Read the timestamp on the contract you open.
Where do I read the Brazil runoff on Predwise?
Open politics markets or Predwise Search and match the candidate and the date. The winner price does not settle the margin contract, and neither one settles a ceasefire or a Fed meeting.
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